Be careful what you ask for

We are within the next few hours going to execute Saddam Hussein. We have within the past few days occupied Mogadishu through our Ethiopian proxies. There are probably a bunch of happy neocons around.

Unfortunately, executing Saddam will achieve nothing except the further alienation of Iraq's Sunni Arabs. They will note that Shiite death squads go around unpunished. Hell, they run the departments where law and order is supposed to be delivered. If the Sunnis have any doubt as to how the New Order is going to work in Iraq, Saddam's execution is going to clarify things for them. People talk about the expected "spike" in violence. The "spikes" seem to go up but never come as far down. Expect more of the same.

And in beautiful downtown Mogadishu, who exactly do we expect to take over? After it all falls apart, and the largely Christian Ethiopians have gone home, and what was once the effective national government has been dispersed, and the warlords return to their traditional pastimes of rape and pillage, will the United States face less threat from extreme Islam than it did last week?

There's a pattern here. There are times when it's better to have an effective government that you don't like that no government. We got rid of Saddam and are about to kill him. We've driven out the Islamic Union. Things are doubtless now going to be peachy. Details to follow.