Friday, July 04, 2008

Don't short the USD, buy Pinot Noir

There's a growing concern that the production of pinot noir grapes in Oregon has put the industry in the state on track for a price crash in a few years. I don't think so.

Just consider the competitive situation. A large amount of wine consumed in this country comes from places like Europe and Australia, where the USD has fallen dramatically in the past two years. Buying patterns don't shift immediately and we can expect foreign governments to take actions to protect their domestic wine industries, but the principle of import substitution is going to rule.

Fortunately for the rest of the country, the Pacific Northwest produces great wine and Americans should be happy to buy Oregon and Washington wines instead of French. Good thing, because when the Euro reaches $2, they won't be able to afford their old habits.

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