Nothing to say about Iraq

We're getting into a period where the Surge is being touted as a success and Iraq is fading from the public consciousness. I have never been especially wedded to my specific predictions, although some of them look decently prescient. However, I've had one core prediction that I'm prepared to stick with. This isn't going to turn out well.

For it to turn out well, the United States needs to complete its mission and be able to walk away without chaos ensuing. The fact that we can tamp down violence while stationing more troops that we can possibly maintain without a major upgrade of our defense establishment proves nothing. The theory at the outset was that we would buy the Iraqis some quiet time during which they could reconcile. Nothing like that is happening. Certainly, Iraqis have lost their affection for Al Qaeda, which gives some basis for hope. But otherwise, the best description of politics in Iraq is paralysis.

So without knowing specifics, I continue to believe that the end will not justify the means. Particularly as the means have entailed more and more costs. Probably a million or so dead, millions displaced, a trillion dollars either spent or now committed, as in future VA costs. The current success consists of somewhat fewer people dying, with the economy, the political establishment, and Iraqi society in shambles and making no progress. I don't feel any need to defend my five years of pessimism.