Run, run, the seas are rising

Bob Doppelt, a local Eugene environmentalist, wrote in today's Register Guard that global warming will bring incredible pain to Lane County, which we should begin to mitigate now. The odd thing is that his final points, that we cannot cure global warming but there can be no real cure unless we all do our part, is plainly false. Lane County is insignificant in this situation. If we reduced our countial (what's the adjective for county?) carbon footprint to zero, it would have no impact and we'd go right on getting warmer. Conversely, nobody is India or China will change a policy because of what Lane County does, and those folks are actually important.

However, it was amusing as usual to listen to the fright mongering about the rising oceans. Due to the projected 4.6-foot increase, we in Florence should be concerned that the waves will begin washing away our sand.

First, let's take a deep breath and consider the past 20 millenia. Since the end of the last Ice Age, the oceans have risen tremendously. The old seashore lies far beneath the waves. Yet, in case no one has noticed, we have a lot of sand here.

The reason is simply that the Pacific carries a great deal of energy eastward which is dissipates on the coastline. Some of that energy drives sand upwards, against the natural tendency of gravity to send it downward. It isn't a smooth process and stormy seas are net removers, but summer restores sand to the beaches. If you move the beach higher by a foot, the sand will be delivered a foot higher as well.

However, neither the coastline nor the sea level is completely fixed, never has been, never will be, and anyone living next to it deals with that. The rate of change of the ocean is relatively insignificant. The same UN report which underlies the hysteria also provides contradictory graphs of actual history. For instance, in the 60 years after WW II, the oceans rose more quickly for the first 25 years than the next 35. Unfortunately for the climate warmers, the rise was more quickly in the first 25 and during that time, global temperatures fell.

Meanwhile, people along coasts are always insecure about where the ocean meets land, except for a few places where they sit comfortably on basalt. Anyone who builds so close to the shore that a few inches rise will be important during the lifetime of a structure, is nuts. Otherwise, the next builder will start a few inches higher. Hardly the greatest global crisis of the century.