Oregonians are Math Challenged

It's not difficult. If you need a certain amount of money every year, which equals what you expect the long term average to be, then you can't discard the surplus in those years that exceed the average, because mathematically, there will be years below the average.

We didn't see it coming with PERS, and consequently told public employees when we had good years that they could keep the excess for their pensions and that the taxpayers would make it up during the bad years, i.e. when earnings dipped below 8%. The legislature passed the rules in the early 1990's when the money was relatively small and apparently just didn't work out the consequences.

Neither have they figured out the implications of having an almost entirely income-tax based general fund and no serious reserves. In the previous recession, the state was flushing out its treasury with "kicker" checks just as the projections for tax revenues were going south. We ended up with some schools becoming the butt of Doonesbury jokes.

Here we are again. We've sent out record kicker checks in the fall and now in winter, the handwriting on the wall is becoming evident again. The first decline in the revenue forecast was under $200 million. It was, however, enough to essentially eliminate the unappropriated amount in the state's ending fund balances. There are still some reserves, but those will be mostly wiped out with the next estimate.

This may just be the Republicans' blunt tool to achieve control of total government spending, but since it is likely to seriously impact schools, community colleges, universities, highways, and law enforcement, you'd think they would devise something more targeted.