There's no such thing as a free war

The Bush administration is now suggesting privately that the next fiscal year's budget will be at $490 billion. This is in the Neverland world in which the war in Iraq, which has been going on since 2003, is not a regular expense item. Add another $80 billion for that.

Then add another $180 billion of so for the Social Security surplus, which is going to be needed in another few years. If we're going to maintain that the SS Trust Fund exists, then its money is not also the general fund's. The general fund must be running a deficit of more like $750 billion. According to Wikipedia, "earmarks" are also off budget and run around $50 billion a year more.

$490 billion may be optimistic, since the administration probably expects a shallow recession, which may not be the case. I wonder how much the $490 billion depends on cheaper oil than we are now experiencing. The U.S. government is a huge consumer of petroleum products.

All of this, however, is very little compared with the rate at which the government is incurring actuarial liabilities for future retirees. It also assumes that foreigners will continue to lend America the money to fund its twin deficits while experiencing a declining greenback and low interest rates.

But why worry. It's summer. Everything's going to be just fine.