Testing my Iraq Theory of Dividing the Oil Spoils

My theory that the relative calm in Iraq was the result of politicians realizing that there was too much money available at stake to waste time quarreling, is about to be tested. The price of oil is dropping so far so fast that the cash available to keep the typical Iraqi comfortable isn't going to be there.

There are some 25 million Iraqis, although a census now would be distorted by the number of refugees in other countries, and the daily oil production could be about 2.5 million bpd without much trouble. At $150, less $30 cost, that's $12 daily for every Iraqi. Most of that, of course, is siphoned off by corruption and mismanagement, but it's still enough that it could trickle down to the man on the desert fast enough to bring them all to the brink of the middle class, by Iraqi standards.

Knock $100 off that, and the post-cost figure is closer to $20, or $2/day. Now there isn't enough. The country can continue to do OK, but only if the 60% Shiite population agrees to stay economically marginalized. If the Kurds want the 40% that's in Kurdistan, the Shiites may want the balance that's in the south, leaving almost nothing for the Sunnis, who will then be forced to fight. That's been my theory.

The other possibility is that they are all just getting too tired of it all to go on fighting. We're coming up to six years. With luck, they have been pushed to the point that they just can't see why they benefit from more civil war. I hope so. One thing I share with the average Iraqi is the intense wish for the U.S. of A. to simply get the hell out of Iraq.