The Worst Iraq Election Outcome

I've been wondering which would be worse, a defeat of the Iraq constitution, starting the process all over, or a narrow win with the Sunni arabs voting mostly against. I have never really considered the idea that it would pass because all three major groups would feel satisfied with it.

Now another option seems to be emerging, which is Sunni support based on everyone pretending that it will be progress to adopt a constitution that will be renegotiated in January. If possible, this seems worse.

The Kurds have no interest in a successful Iraq, but they aren't anxious for a failed one either. They have most of what they want and can afford to wait. The motivations of the arabs, either Sunni or Shiite, is murkier, but one should remember that the decision to "compromise" was made by the power brokers behind closed doors. Their motivation may be a lot simpler. Money.

This is a part of the world where the phrase "corrupt politician" is largely redundant. Following our overt occupation government, Puppet Government 1 now seems to have viewed its mission as looting the treasury. It has been replaced by Puppet Government 2, which has doled out ministries to the various factions. A ministry is a license to steal. It seems plausible that powerful political elements prefer a continuation of the status quo to an unpredictable resolution.

So what are they stealing from whom? Some from Iraqis, but certainly billions of dollars from American taxpayers. We may be doing some of it consciously. We spent a ton of money backing Chalabi before the invasion. We are probably paying off "tame" Sunnis now, although it is doubtless called reconstruction.

I wish I were a better person and that my motivation was deep concern for the plight of Iraqis, but they were badly off under Saddam, they are badly off now, and they will probably be badly off when this degenerates into civil war. I'm more concerned about the half trillion dollars this is likely to cost. I know the official cost is still far less, but I'm working on the assumption that many costs are being hidden, or just deferred like maintenance or repair, or yet-to-come like VA medical care.

When historians discuss this in the future, I predict they will arrive at a figure around a half trillion and will note that there were lots of better ways to spend it.