Off to Minneapolis

I'm not sure about the Democrats. With only two true credible candidates at this time, and John Edwards hoping to be a compromise, there is a decent chance that one of them will start pulling away. Caveat: In a couple hundred years, the Democrats have never nominated a woman or a non-white. Racism and sexism may not be fashionable, but they are real and the barrier for either Clinton or Obama may be quite high.

However, it's looking like a cat fight on the Republican side. The latest national poll shows McCain leading with 22% support. That's among Republicans, who represent about a third of the vote, with the others being Democrats or Independents. So the top Republican today is favored by perhaps 10% of the voters, throwing in a few indies and no Democrats to speak of.

The irrelevance of Iowa is shown by the fact that the top two -- Huckabee and Romney -- are third and fourth in the national polls. The irrelevance of New Hampshire is similar, with the Giuliani and Huckabee being effectively no-shows. Then there's South Carolina, where McCain will fight it out with Huckabee. Eventually, Giuliani will emerge to win the Big States, he hopes. Romney will take Utah and Idaho. Ron Paul will get a delegate somewhere.

It all adds up to too much chaos. In the last half century of American history, there has been no brokered convention. I predict that Republicans will break that tradition in Minneapolis next September. I'd lay a 50:50 bet. Takers?