A Reality Check for Kenya

In the 2.5 weeks of unrest in Kenya, the death toll is now reported to be 612. According to the CIA Factbook for Kenya, the population is 37 million. The birth rate is 39 per thousand annually, so 1.4 million a year or 4,000 per day. Infant mortality is 57 per thousand, so 228.

So this "crisis" is killing as many people in a week as there are babies dying in their mothers' arms from natural causes every day. It's a lot sexier to show violence in the media, but it's a minor problem for a country like Kenya.

The real problem is the mathematical fact that you cannot go on growing at the rate they have without eventually imploding from lack of food. Kenya has gone from 6.4 million in 1950 at rates that are dropping slightly as percentages but not in absolute terms. There isn't going to be any place left to grow enough food. They will overfarm until yields start to fall. There will be mass starvation. When? Who knows, but it will make the current dustup look like a Sunday School picnic.