Iraq Elections - UIA wins or UIA doesn't win. Both bad.

At this point, it's not clear whether the UIA, the united front of the religious Shiite parties, will form the next government, but it's not likely that either option is going to work out for the United States.

Option one is they win. They are distinguishable from the Iranians, but there is a lot more in common between them and the ayatollahs in Tehran than between them and the United States. They will be inclined to tolerate a nuclear weapon program in Iran. They will disregard the rights of religious minorities to sin, i.e. to buy liquor or adopt Western standards of dress. They are going to prosecute the campaign of de-Baathification, which will keep the insurgency alive and well.

Option two is they lose. Remember that the Iraqi constitution has been adopted and for it to be modified, the Iraqi parliament must first approve the changes and then the Iraqi voters. It can be defeated by three provinces. Any effort to reduce the Shiite gains thus far made is going to fail.

I'm sure the UIA would love to run all of Iraq, but they already have what they most need, the right to establish regional control over the provinces with the most oil. As have the Kurds in their region.

So the only way the Sunnis can have a strong voice in the central government is if that government becomes irrelevant to the other two blocs. They have no voice or a voice that doesn't matter. Either way, civil war. You say tomato, ...