Saturday, December 17, 2005

Southwest Airlines hasn't made me feel safer.

In the defense of the safety of the flying public, Southwest Airlines stopped a flight that was about to depart from Los Angeles because some wiseacre was joking with his friends about having a bomb. Everybody got off, the man was arrested, and the plane was searched. Nothing was found, but the guy is in deep doo-doo and will face serious consequences.

Do you feel safer because our airlines operate this way? If so, please join me in a mental experiment. Imagine a person who has decided to destroy an airplane in flight by bringing a bomb onto a flight which he himself will take. He is going to die along with everyone around him when, according to his intent and expectation, the bomb explodes. Do you have him in mind? Now, can you imagine him telling jokes about bombs after he's boarded the plane?

I can picture him sitting nervously, sweating profusely and not making eye contact. I can imagine, although I've never heard of an instance, of a terrorist changing his mind and confessing to a flight attendant. But joking?

During the last 10 million commercial flights within the United States, nobody has ever brought a bomb onboard and detonated it. A certain number of people have been detained for making remarks. Has any one of them ever been found to actually have brought one along? Not that I've ever heard.

But, you may say, all this security makes us feel safer. Safer than what? People in this country die from earthquakes, tornados and earthquakes. Roughly 80 people die in a typical year from being struck by lightning. These are real dangers, and I for one do not lose sleep over them.

Being on an airplane that has the bad luck to be selected by a dedicated and skillful bomber, one capable of evading security and ready to die to make his point, is a much lower probability than any of the above. I don't worry at all when I get on an airplane. If possible, I would worry even less if the guy in the next seat started joking about bombs.

1 comment:

Joseph Hunkins said...

Right on Rob, and speaking of thought experiments assume for a moment that people assigned risk and budget priorities rationally, optimizing human life rather than political priorities.