Chaos Theory holds that complex non-linear system can arrive at radically different results after extremely similar initial conditions. I have a feeling that the 2008 campaign will show this principle in action. Candidates surge and then fall back based on small factors. Timing is everything. If you surge just in time to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, you may carry the day. On the other hand, with "leaders" coming around 30%, some other primary at some other time may change things entirely.
Leading us to wonder, why do we elect the president this way? Why would we allow sentiment attaching to these states as historically early to continue giving them such undue importance? When the result just confirms underlying trends, this isn't necessarily bad, but we're coming into a year when the problems may come into focus.
Suppose, for instance, a candidate does well from January through March and becomes the anticipated nominee. However, round about May, he starts saying really odd things about foreign policy and the party faithful start to have second thoughts. Could the nomination be denied in August?
Thankfully, we have Mike Bloomberg to fall back on.
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1 comment:
I'm not sure about you, but I'm really excited about the possibility of a Bloomberg run. We have a Draft site going if you are interested getting involved at UniteForMike.com.
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