Sunday, December 30, 2007

Oregon will still be important

Those who think that Oregon's May presidential primary will be nothing but a formality should look more closely at the polls. Nobody in either party gets more than about 30% support. With some of the big states abandoning the "winner take all" approach, both nominations may still be in play come May.

In fact, given the chaos on the Republican side, it's conceivable that no one will arrive at their September convention with 51% delegate support. In a brokered convention, it's going to be important what the delegates' second choices are, and that's not going to be on any primary ballot, Oregon's or otherwise. The decision in September may be made by people we have elected for one purpose but about whom we really know nothing.

In parliamentary systems, party leaders are chosen by party activists, not the general electorate. At election time, voters can choose between leaders but they can't pick just anyone. This seems less democratic than the way Americans elect a president, but I'm not so sure.

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